SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031315
OKZ000-TXZ000-031445-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0099
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0715 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/NRN OK...SMALL PART OF NW TX...EXTREME
E-CENTRAL/SERN PANHANDLE OF TX.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 24...
VALID 031315Z - 031445Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 24 CONTINUES.
WW HAS BEEN CLEARED OVER UNFAVORABLY COLD AIR N OF SFC OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DESCRIBED BELOW...AND MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT
CROSSING WRN PORTIONS OF WW.
1245Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
QLCS...ACROSS CNU/BVO AREAS THEN ARCHING SWWD ACROSS NRN FRINGES OKC
METRO...THEN WWD/NWD OVER CANADIAN/NRN CUSTER COUNTIES...INTO SFC
LOW LOCATED OVER ERN ROGER MILLS COUNTY. COLD FRONT WAS DRAWN SWWD
FROM LOW ACROSS SERN TX PANHANDLE...ESSENTIALLY COLLOCATED WITH
LEADING EDGE OF BKN CONVECTIVE BAND OVER PORTIONS
WHEELER/COLLINGSWORTH/DONLEY COUNTIES. COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SEWD
15-20 KT WITH REINFORCEMENT FROM HEAVIEST CONVECTION LOCATED JUST
BEHIND FRONT. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD DECELERATE/STALL DURING NEXT
COUPLE HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL OK IN ADVANCE OF SFC LOW. POCKET OF
FAVORABLE AIR IS EVIDENT OVER PORTIONS SW OK AND NW TX AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT...WITH MODIFIED ON RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING 500-1000
J/KG MLCAPE...AMIDST 250-450 J/KG EFFECTIVE SRH. MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR IS LACK OF CONVECTIVE FORCING S OF BOUNDARY AND E OF COLD
FRONT. TORNADO RISK HAS BEEN RESTRICTED...SINCE EARLIER ACTIVITY E
OF FRONT DISSIPATED AND MOVE OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
..EDWARDS.. 02/03/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 34520079 35669990 35929877 35699768 35149747 34059803
34030030 34520079
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