SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040942
TXZ000-041245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0112
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SE TX.
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 040942Z - 041245Z
INITIALLY WIDELY SCATTERED AREAS OF 1-3 INCH/HOUR RAIN RATES MAY
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS BAND OF TSTMS OVER S-CENTRAL THROUGH
E-CENTRAL TX BECOMES BETTER-DEFINED BY FRONTAL INTRUSION/ASCENT.
PEAK OF HEAVY RAIN THREAT...INCLUDING SUSTAINED RAINFALL WITH
SLOW-MOVING/MERGING/TRAINING CELLS...WILL BE THROUGH 12Z.
09Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT...EXTENDING SWWD FROM WEAK
LOW OVER WRN AR TO JUST SE OF TXK-GGG-HDO LINE. FRONT HAS CAUGHT UP
TO PRE-EXISTING CONVECTIVE BAND FROM ABOUT I-45 SWWD...AND SHOULD DO
SO OVER REMAINDER E TX SEGMENT DURING NEXT 2 HOURS. COLD FRONT HAS
UNDERCUT TSTM LINE OVER SAT AREA...THOUGH CONVECTION IS PERSISTING
AND MAY EVEN BACKBUILD AS FRONTAL ASCENT ACTS ON FAVORABLE
MOISTURE/BUOYANCY IN ELEVATED LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS. ENHANCED LIFT
FROM FRONTAL FORCING ALL ALONG THIS BAND...AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW
AIDED BY BROAD/20-30 KT LLJ...WILL ACT TO CONCENTRATE/ENHANCE PRECIP
FIELDS. INFLOW SECTOR WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S SFC DEW POINTS...LAYER RH AOA 90%...AND PW REACHING 1.5-1.75
INCH RANGE. PRECIP LOADING ALSO MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THREAT FOR
ISOLATED/LOCALIZED DAMAGING GUSTS...HOWEVER SVR HAZARD APPEARS TOO
DISORGANIZED FOR WW AND IS SECONDARY TO THREAT FROM HEAVY RAIN. AS
FRONT CONTINUES TO CROSS S AND SE TX...ESPECIALLY AFTER ABOUT
12Z...NET SEWD MOTION OF TSTM BAND SHOULD ACCELERATE...REDUCING
AMOUNT OF TIME THAT HEAVIEST RAIN RATES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER
MOST SPOTS.
..EDWARDS.. 02/04/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 29369925 29569821 30569620 31559472 31589382 30919374
29709549 28909760 28559894 28829946 29369925
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