MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0118

ACUS11 KWNS 151927
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151926
OKZ000-KSZ000-152100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0118
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0126 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL/NERN OK...FAR S-CNTRL/SERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 151926Z - 152100Z

A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SURFACE BASED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL/NERN OK
AND FAR S-CNTRL/SERN KS. MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT
A WW IS UNLIKELY.

AT 19Z...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER NWRN/N-CNTRL OK...WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM THE
LOW ACROSS CNTRL OK INTO NRN TX. SURFACE WINDS W OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT HAVE ACCELERATED OUT OF THE W AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES
WELL MIXED BENEATH A MIDLEVEL VORT LOBE ADVANCING EWD ACROSS WRN OK.
MEANWHILE...LOW 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ADVECTING NWD INTO N-CNTRL
OK IMMEDIATELY E OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT. TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN
STRONGER SURFACE HEATING OVER WRN OK AND MOISTENING OVER
CNTRL/N-CNTRL OK WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN DESTABILIZATION WITH SBCAPE
VALUES UP TO 500 J/KG POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS MAY FAVOR
ISOLATED SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT INCREASES DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS. MIDLEVEL SWLY FLOW AOA
50 KT IS CONTRIBUTING TOWARD STRONG DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
/I.E. 0-6 KM BULK WIND DIFFERENCE EXCEEDING 70 KT/...WHICH WILL
FAVOR ORGANIZED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG SHEAR COMBINED
WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 7 C/KM SUGGESTS STRONGER CORES MAY
POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
LIMITING FACTOR FOR GREATER SVR WEATHER THREAT WILL BE TENDENCY FOR
STORMS TO ENCOUNTER COOL/STABLE AIRMASS E OF THE FRONT /WHICH MAY
LIMIT STORM PERSISTENCE AND STRENGTH/...WHERE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO ERODE.

..GARNER.. 02/15/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 35239728 36719809 37349772 37689679 37529515 36409461
35549479 35009602 35239728

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