SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152114
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-152245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0119
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX TO LA AND SOUTHERN AR/SOUTHWEST MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 152114Z - 152245Z
BOUTS OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS MAY PERSIST ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LA INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF AR/MS THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. A SEVERE THREAT /AND HEAVY RAINFALL/ MAY ALSO
INCREASE TO A DEGREE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS COASTAL
SOUTHEAST TX. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED IN EITHER
CASE...BUT THE NEED FOR A WATCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TX IF A CONVECTIVE UPSWING OCCURS.
AT MID-AFTERNOON...A WELL-SUSTAINED/INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AND
MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTIVE QUASI-LINEAR COMPLEX CONTINUES TO
STEADILY EXPAND/PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL
LA. ON THIS NORTH AND EAST PERIPHERY OF THIS MCS...SUSTAINED
ASCENT/WARM ADVECTION AND THE PRESENCE OF WEAK ELEVATED BUOYANCY MAY
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE HAIL THREAT...ALTHOUGH SUCH A RISK
WILL TEND TO REMAIN EPISODIC/MARGINAL IN NATURE. AN EXPANDING MCS
COLD POOL AND THE INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE MCS
/INCLUDING APPARENT MCV TENDENCIES/ LEADS CREDENCE TO SOME POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE MCS AND
MODEST LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY AHEAD OF IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO TEMPER
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE-CALIBER DOWNDRAFTS...EVEN WHERE MODEST CLOUD
BREAKS AND SURFACE HEATING /AROUND 70 F/ ARE OCCURRING IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL LA.
FARTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SOUTHEAST TX...MOIST
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE REGENERATION WITH A
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED CORRIDOR. ALONG WITH A SUSTAINED HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT...SOME SURFACE BASED SEVERE THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE
ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE CURRENT MCS WHERE THE AIRMASS HAS
DESTABILIZED /750-1500 J PER KG/ AMID A VERY MOIST AIRMASS /NEAR 70F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ AND LIMITED CLOUD BREAKS. WHILE THE COMBINATION
OF VERTICAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND MODEST CONVERGENCE
AMID NEBULOUS LARGE SCALE INFLUENCES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO UNCERTAINTY
TO THE EXTENT/LIKELIHOOD OF THE SEVERE RISK.
NONETHELESS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX
THIS AFTERNOON.
..GUYER.. 02/15/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...EWX...
LAT...LON 29349685 30069648 30459575 31299346 33899244 33529103
30639163 30349304 29759452 28759612 29349685
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