SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181035
LAZ000-TXZ000-181130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0123
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0435 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 181035Z - 181130Z
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SERN TX AND EVENTUALLY SWRN LA LATER
THIS MORNING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR.
STORMS HAVE CONSOLIDATED ACROSS SERN TX ON SURGING OUTFLOW/COLD
FRONT COMPOSITE BOUNDARY. AHEAD OF THIS LINE...WARM ADVECTION
CONVECTION WAS SHIFTING NWD OVER SERN TX INTO WRN LA. THIS
CONVECTION IS A GOOD PROXY FOR THE WARM FRONT...WHICH MAY BE
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
S OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH SIMILAR DEWPOINTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT DESPITE COOL TEMPERATURES...LITTLE CAPPING
EXISTS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE FORCED LINE OF STORMS.
FURTHER...THERE MAY BE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND
WITH LONG HODOGRAPHS IN PLACE...THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER THOUGH...SEVERE
THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
OTHER CELLS WERE DEVELOPING FARTHER S AS WELL ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
CAPPING IS A PROBLEM FROM CRP TO BRO...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DEEP
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT COULD EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THE
INVERSION...WITH A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST BEFORE
QUICKLY MOVING OFFSHORE. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL IF THEY
REMAIN CELLULAR.
..JEWELL.. 02/18/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...
LAT...LON 27479693 27029750 27209798 27559803 28679728 29809640
30569592 30789503 30619355 30149232 29839211 29419244
29519334 29429401 28819533 28319617 27849674 27479693
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