SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181429
LAZ000-TXZ000-181500-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0829 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA...SERN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 27...
VALID 181429Z - 181500Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 27
CONTINUES.
SQUALL LINE ALONG PRIMARILY COASTAL SECTIONS OF SWRN LA TO SERN TX
SHOULD POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE SRN LA
COAST THIS MORNING. WW 27 MAY BE SPATIOTEMPORALLY EXTENDED ACROSS
PARTS OF SWRN LA. A DOWNSTREAM WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE HOUR
FOR SERN LA...BUT WILL BE MONITORED FOR ONE LATER THIS MORNING.
14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED 1006 MB CYCLONE AROUND 30 S BPT...WITH
QUASI-STATIONARY WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ALONG THE SRN LA COAST.
MODIFIED 12Z LCH RAOB WOULD INFER THAT PORTION OF SQUALL LINE ACROSS
SWRN LA IS ELEVATED WITH MINIMAL SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. GIVEN
ORIENTATION EVOLVING FROM A N-S TO MORE OF AN W-E STRUCTURE SUGGEST
DOWNSTREAM DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL IN THE
NEAR-TERM.../RECENT OBSERVED GUSTS OF 37 AND 40 KT MEASURED AT KCWF
AND KUXL/. STILL PRESENCE OF 50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY POSE AN
ISOLATED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS...PRIMARILY ALONG COASTAL SWRN LA.
..GRAMS.. 02/18/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...
LAT...LON 28369572 28989563 29599460 29749399 30219322 30579259
30519175 30269110 29869077 29609081 29179102 29089150
29169238 29389350 28369572
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