SWODY1
SPC AC 011630
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST THU MAR 01 2012
VALID 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
OZARK PLATEAU INTO MID SOUTH...
...SYNOPSIS...
SWD PROPAGATION OF MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS FROM THE PACIFIC
NW INTO SRN ROCKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE INTENSIFICATION OF WRN
CONUS TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...LEE CYCLONE OVER CNTRL KS WILL DEVELOP ENEWD INTO THE LOWER
MO VALLEY WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS FORECAST TONIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING FROM OK INTO SWRN MO. THESE FEATURES WILL HASTEN THE NWD
RETREAT OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY --WHICH HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES-- INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU AND TN VALLEY.
AT THE SAME TIME...A DRYLINE/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM S-CNTRL
OK/N-CNTRL TX INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WILL BE GRADUALLY OVERTAKEN
BY A COLD FRONT.
...OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER OH VALLEY...
THE LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL
INDUCE A LLJ ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE NWD
FLUX OF A WARMER AND MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GULF COAST.
THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR BENEATH AN EWD-ADVECTING EML WHICH WILL
RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION OVERNIGHT WITH
MUCAPE INCREASING TO 1500-2000 J/KG. INCREASING WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AT THE TERMINUS OF THE LLJ WILL GIVE RISE TO ELEVATED
NOCTURNAL TSTMS WITHIN THIS ZONE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITHIN
A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING STRONG CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR. AS
SUCH...A RISK FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY SEVERE HAIL WILL
EXIST LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
...GULF COAST STATES...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SURFACE FRONT HAS STALLED AND WILL BEGIN TO
RETREAT N AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND 12Z REGIONAL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR...CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND PW VALUES UP
TO 1.5 INCHES. THE AMPLIFICATION OF UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN THE EWD ADVECTION OF AN EML FROM THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...EFFECTIVELY CONFINING DIURNAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT TO THE CNTRL GULF STATES EWD. HERE...THE PRESENCE OF A
MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL ALIGN WITH 50+ KT OF DEEP
WLY SHEAR...RESULTING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TODAY. AS SUCH...LOW PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN
INCLUDED.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS AREA...SEE MCD 197.
..MEAD/JEWELL.. 03/01/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment