SWODY1
SPC AC 131619
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT TUE MAR 13 2012
VALID 131630Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NORTHEAST...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AXIS OF RELATIVELY
CLEAR SKIES TODAY FROM CENTRAL VA NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST NY. THIS
ZONE WILL LIKELY SEE SUBSTANTIAL HEATING AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
MID 50S. RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL CAPE
VALUES /MLCAPE OF 500-800 J/KG/...COUPLED WITH 30+KT WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL IN ANY STORMS THAT
CAN MATURE. THAT BEING SAID...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS QUITE WEAK
AND MODEL SOLUTIONS OFFER SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER
CONVECTIVE INITIATION CAN OCCUR. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ALONG THIS CORRIDOR FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS A
SIGNIFICANT CONCERN.
..HART/MOSIER/LEITMAN.. 03/13/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment