SWODY1
SPC AC 280039
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012
VALID 280100Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN MO INTO CNTRL IL AND
WRN INDIANA...
...NRN MO INTO CNTRL IL AND WRN INDIANA...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO FORM ALONG A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
NOW FROM SRN WI SWWD INTO NRN MO. VISIBLE IMAGERY DOES INDICATE SOME
DEEPER CU FORMING OVER NWRN IL...BUT WEAK FORCING IS HAVING TROUBLE
OVERCOMING CAPPING. STILL...COOLING ALOFT WILL PERSIST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSES TO THE N...AND SEVERAL MODELS INSIST ON CONVECTION
THIS EVENING FROM NRN MO INTO IL. HODOGRAPHS WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS
WITH MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT. RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND
MODERATE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS SUGGESTS STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL
AS WELL.
...SW TX...
A SMALL MCS CONTINUES TO DRIFT SEWD OVER BREWSTER AND TERRELL
COUNTIES AND SHOULD PERSIST FOR A WHILE LONGER WITH ESTABLISHED COLD
POOL MOVING INTO AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THE DRT SOUNDING INDICATES
SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY BUT LACK OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A
MORE SUSTAINED WIND AND HAIL THREAT. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 369.
...CNTRL/WRN KS OVERNIGHT...
THE 00Z DDC SOUNDING SHOWS RATHER STEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE WITH MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAKLY VEERING LOW
LEVELS. WITH MID TO UPPER 50S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SLOWLY
ADVECTING NWD OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. IF THEY DO FORM BEFORE 12Z...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL.
..JEWELL.. 03/28/2012
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