SWODY2
SPC AC 061728
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CST TUE MAR 06 2012
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD BELT OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL STRETCH FROM THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LOW OVER NM AND AZ NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...
NWLY FLOW WITH AN UPPER JET WILL DIVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN NWD OVER THE SRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF
THE UPPER LOW...WHILE A COLD FRONT SURGES SWD ACROSS THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS. THE RESULT WILL BE A ZONE OF INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WED NIGHT...OVER PORTIONS OF KS/OK/MO AND
AR.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE WITH WEAK
CONVECTION FORMING IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
E CNTRL UT INTO NWRN CO WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY STEEP UNDER
THE UPPER LOW.
...SRN KS INTO NW OK...
A WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL BE UNDERWAY IN THE LOW LEVELS AS A
40-50 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW.
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE CAPPED...LIFT WILL INCREASE
ALONG AND NEAR THE SAGGING COLD FRONT FROM SRN KS INTO NWRN OK...AND
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RELATIVELY HIGH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THESE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED...THUS...THE ONLY THREAT WILL BE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COOL AND SHEAR IS
FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFT CORES.
..JEWELL.. 03/06/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment