SWODY2
SPC AC 211727
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CNTRL GULF COAST...
A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
THURSDAY MORNING WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD DURING THE DAY. ON THE ERN
SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM...A WELL-DEFINED BAND OF LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH A 30 TO 40 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED FURTHER TO THE EAST IN THE CNTRL GULF COAST
STATES. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG THE AXIS OF
THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING VERY SLOWLY EWD OR
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE DAY. AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY
IS FORECAST TO THE EAST OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. BY 18 TO
21Z...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED WITH MLCAPE AROUND
1000 J/KG...850 MB FLOW OF 25 TO 35 KT AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 40
KT. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT
ESPECIALLY AS SFC TEMPS WARM AROUND MIDDAY HELPING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO STEEPEN. THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY ALSO SUPPORT A FEW
ROTATING STORMS BUT THE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN FURTHER WEST AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY WEAKEN SOME THURSDAY
AFTERNOON KEEPING ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL.
...NE OK/SE KS/SW MO/NW AR...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EWD ON THURSDAY. AS SFC TEMPS WARM DURING THE DAY...MODEL FORECASTS
INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW WHERE STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD EXIST. COLD TEMPS ALOFT
AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
SHOULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CORES. THE
MODELS ALSO MOVE A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET NWD INTO ERN OK AND SE
KS DURING THE AFTERNOON SUGGESTING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN SOME. THIS ALONG WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY
ALSO SUPPORT A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESPECIALLY AS CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE INCREASES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
..BROYLES.. 03/21/2012
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