SWODY2
SPC AC 281718
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THU ACROSS PARTS OF THE E CNTRL
PLAINS...MID AND LWR MO VALLEY REGION...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR CONCERNING THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF
A BROAD VORTEX OVER PARTS OF EASTERN CANADA...THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S..AND THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AND
DISCREPANCIES APPEAR RELATIVELY LOW CONCERNING BROAD TROUGHING
WITHIN A STRONG MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC JET...WHICH MAY BEGIN NOSING
INTO PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE
VARIABILITY EXISTS CONCERNING DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN A WEAKER FLOW
REGIME IN BETWEEN...ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR U.S...PARTICULARLY
WITH REGARD TO THE MANNER IN WHICH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH /NOW
ADVANCING INLAND ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES/ SPLITS AS IT PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN A BRANCH OF
FLOW EXTENDING EAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE
GULF COAST STATES ARE ALSO UNCLEAR...AND ALL THIS LEADS TO AN
UNCERTAIN CONVECTIVE FORECAST...AT LEAST WITH REGARD TO ANY
SUBSTANTIVE DETAIL.
...EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MID/LWR MO VALLEY REGION...
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG A
STALLED SURFACE FRONT...EAST OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW CENTER EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY THURSDAY. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...MIXED LAYER CAPE APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME
MODERATELY LARGE ACROSS A SIZABLE AREA. HOWEVER...LARGELY DUE TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED VARIABILITY CONCERNING SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS
...AND THEIR POTENTIAL IMPACT ON CONVECTIVE INHIBITION EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE RELEASE OF THIS INSTABILITY
REMAIN UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
CONTRIBUTE TO A RISK FOR ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED STORM
CLUSTERS...THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA...INTO SOUTHWESTERN IOWA AND
WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI.
...SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED WITH
INSOLATION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
EVOLUTION OF A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER THAT WILL PROVIDE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE MORE VIGOROUS
ACTIVITY...UNTIL IT DIMINISHES DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
..KERR.. 03/28/2012
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