SWODY2
SPC AC 280559
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2012
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID AND LOWER MO VALLEY AND
VICINITY...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST AND THE
MAIN NERN PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF AK...DEAMPLIFYING
FLOW FIELD ALOFT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE U.S. -- WITH THE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH EXITING THE ROCKIES ACTING TO FLATTEN THE PERSISTENT CENTRAL
U.S. RIDGE.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING INVOF THE MID MO VALLEY WILL
BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THIS PERIOD.
...MID AND LOWER MO VALLEY AND VICINITY...
AREAS OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITHIN TWO ZONES OF WARM
ADVECTION -- ONE INTO ERN KS/WRN MO NEAR THE NOSE OF A SWLY BRANCH
OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET...AND ONE OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS REGION IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A SECOND/MORE SLY BRANCH OF THE JET.
AS LARGE-SCALE RIDGING IS SUPPRESSED BY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING ASSISTING IN
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION...NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR -- LIKELY FOCUSED NEAR A WEAK SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO RESIDE
INVOF THE MID MO VALLEY. WITH TIME...EWD PROGRESS OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A STEADY EWD/SEWD SHIFT OF THE
CONVECTION...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MO AND EVENTUALLY
INTO WRN MO.
WITH AMPLY STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT ACROSS THIS REGION
SUPPORTING UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION...A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN THREATS. OVERNIGHT...STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS --
POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS THE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE MO AND LATER THE MID MS VALLEY.
..GOSS.. 03/28/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment