MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0197

ACUS11 KWNS 011625
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011624
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-011800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0197
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1024 AM CST THU MAR 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL INTO SRN GA...PARTS OF ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 011624Z - 011800Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...BUT POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS LIMITED AT THE
PRESENT TIME.

SUSTAINED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...NOW PROGRESSING NEAR/
SOUTH THROUGH EAST OF THE EVERGREEN AL AREA...APPEARS LARGELY
SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A FOCUSED LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION FIELD...ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
FLAT SUBTROPICAL RIDING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS IS ALSO ROUGHLY NEAR THE REMNANTS OF A STALLING/ WEAKENING
LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE...ALONG WHICH LIFTED MOIST UNSTABLE AIR
APPEARS CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE OF 500+ K/KG. WESTERLY 850 MB WIND
FIELDS ARE RATHER MODERATE IN STRENGTH AT 20-30 KT...BUT WESTERLY
DEEP LAYER FLOW AND SHEAR REMAIN STRONG...ON THE ORDER OF 50+ KT.

FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL ROTATION AND MODEST
STORM MOTION AROUND 30 KT...THIS IS PROBABLY ENHANCING
ACTIVITY...WHICH COULD STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR PERHAPS A
MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUST THREAT THROUGH MID DAY. MODELS ARE
UNCLEAR HOW MUCH LONGER BEYOND THE 17-19Z TIME FRAME THIS FORCING
WILL PERSIST...BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT FURTHER
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND STORM SCALE DYNAMIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHEAR COULD OVERCOME THIS LIMITING FACTOR.

..KERR.. 03/01/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 31778831 32098671 32228564 32388504 32318424 31988363
31598367 31178380 30678461 30868599 31198821 31778831

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