SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021507
TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-021600-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0204
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0907 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL...MIDDLE/ERN TN...FAR NWRN GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 021507Z - 021600Z
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
TSTMS ACROSS NRN AL AND MIDDLE TN. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH.
LOOSELY ORGANIZED TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE WITHIN A
WEAK WAA ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS NRN AL INTO PARTS OF MIDDLE TN. 12Z
QAG/BMX SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK STABLE LAYER NEAR 1 KM AGL...BUT
WITH CONTINUED HEATING THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR SFC BASED PARCELS WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. GWX VWP DATA ALSO
SHOW A STRONG/CYCLONICALLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH...WITH 0-1 KM
BULK SHEAR NEAR 35 KTS. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY ATTM IS WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF TSTMS...GIVEN LACK OF ROBUST FORCING
MECHANISMS/MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES...BUT WITH A STRONGLY SHEARED AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL...DMGG WINDS...AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS FOR A POSSIBLE
TORNADO WATCH.
..ROGERS.. 03/02/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...
LAT...LON 35888425 35038426 34308550 34158620 34168757 34568792
35998670 36478586 36548448 35888425
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