SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111947
LAZ000-TXZ000-112145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0242
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX THROUGH WRN LA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 71...
VALID 111947Z - 112145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 71 CONTINUES.
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON FROM SERN TX INTO WRN LA. THE GREATEST RISK FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES THROUGH 22Z IS EXPECTED FROM SERN TX NEWD THROUGH SWRN AND
CNTRL LA.
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AXIS FROM EXTREME NW
LA INTO SERN TX CONTINUE TO SHOW OCCASIONAL UPDRAFT ROTATION AND
LEWP STRUCTURES...BUT SO FAR HAVE MOSTLY REMAINED BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR HAS BEEN WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WHICH HAVE RESULTED IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND MODEST UPDRAFT
ACCELERATIONS. NEVERTHELESS...0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS WITH 200-250 M2/S2
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AND LOW LCLS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR A
THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AS THE LLJ SHIFTS SLOWLY NEWD THROUGH
THETA-E AXIS ACROSS WRN CNTRL LA NEXT FEW HOURS.
..DIAL.. 03/11/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 29989438 31519396 32829347 32819225 31549215 29929323
29989438
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