MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0243

ACUS11 KWNS 112236
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112236
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-120000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0243
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0536 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NE LOUISIANA...SE AR...WRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 71...

VALID 112236Z - 120000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 71 CONTINUES.

A NEW WW LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED BY THE CURRENT 00Z EXPIRATION OF WW
71.

WITHIN A BROADER SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
COAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...LATEST RUC GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT A 50+ KT 850 MB JET CORE IS IN THE PROCESS OF NOSING
OUT OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.
ENHANCED FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE APPEAR TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE MOST
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN THE
CASE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS IT CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

ORGANIZED IN A BROKEN LINE...STRONGEST STORMS ARE CURRENTLY EMBEDDED
WITHIN A BROADER BAND OF PRECIPITATION...WHERE WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE
SUPPORTING ONLY VERY WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER BASED CAPE.
BUT...HODOGRAPHS ARE LARGE AND CLOCKWISE CURVED...IN THE PRESENCE OF
A NEAR SATURATED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY SEASONABLY
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. THE RISK FOR TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT WITH THE ADDITIONAL LIMITING FACTOR OF RELATIVELY WEAK
HIGH-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR...DAMAGING CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SURFACE GUSTS
MAY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AS STORMS SPREAD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA REGION AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS BETWEEN NOW AND 01-02Z.

..KERR.. 03/11/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 32289282 34279182 34559102 34148992 32549050 30999179
30929264 32289282

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