SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161944
TXZ000-162045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0268
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 161944Z - 162045Z
A SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON.
AS CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE...A POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED ACROSS WEST TX THIS
AFTERNOON.
AN ISOLATED CELL IS NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP JUST TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS IN WEST TX. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS
INITIATE MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE NNEWD INTO THE MIDLAND AND LUBBOCK
AREAS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG/...0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KT AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 TO 8.5 C/KM. THIS ALONG WITH THE
DISCRETE NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED BUT COULD INCREASE AS CELLS EXPAND IN COVERAGE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
..BROYLES.. 03/16/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 33799978 33309985 32780017 31990081 31080129 30300220
30020310 30080349 30340385 31110378 31770291 32150271
32920237 33390184 34030103 34170060 34040006 33799978
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