SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181749
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-182015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0272
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/ERN INDIANA...CENTRAL/NRN
KY...SWRN/S-CENTRAL OH.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 181749Z - 182015Z
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT/ORGANIZATION OF TSTMS TO SVR LEVELS SHOULD OCCUR
OVER THIS REGION THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL
EXPECTED...AND SPORADIC DAMAGING GUSTS FROM MOST INTENSE
DOWNDRAFTS/COLD POOLS.
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND OBSERVED VWP DATA INDICATE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS SRN LM...SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN/ERN
INDIANA...ASSOCIATED WITH MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAX OVER EXTREME NERN
INDIANA AS OF 17Z. THIS FEATURE CORRESPONDS TO WELL-DEFINED COLD
POCKET OF -17 TO -19 C TEMPS IN 12Z 500-MB ANALYSIS. 500-MB TROUGH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD 10-15 KT THROUGH AFTERNOON...REACHING
SERN LOWER MI...WRN LE...AND N-CENTRAL TO SERN OH BY 00Z. CLEAR
SLOT AND COLLOCATED MIDLEVEL HEIGHT-GRADIENT/WIND ENHANCEMENT NOW
OVER CENTRAL/SRN INDIANA...N-CENTRAL KY AND SWRN OH WILL SHIFT ENEWD
IN STEP WITH MCV. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT CONTINUED BOUNDARY-LAYER
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO ERODE ALREADY WEAK MLCINH BENEATH CLEAR
SLOT AND MIDLEVEL WIND MAX. MOIST ADVECTION FROM SW SHOULD OFFSET
VERTICAL MIXING ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN MID-50S TO LOW-60S F SFC DEW
POINTS...WITH MLCAPE INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE BY 20Z. VIS
IMAGERY SHOWS FIELD OF CU/TCU ALREADY GROWING IN DEPTH/DENSITY ATTM
WITHIN ROUGHLY 80 NM RADIUS OF SDF. GIVEN LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL
BOUNDARIES OR ANY OTHER DISTINCT FOCI APPARENT IN SFC
ANALYSIS...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD GRADUALLY DURING NEXT
2-3 HOURS...RESULTING ULTIMATELY IN SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTMS. MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES 30-40 KT IN SUPPORT OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL
STRUCTURES...WITH SPORADIC SUPERCELL MODES ALSO POSSIBLE TO ENHANCE
HAIL THREAT.
..EDWARDS.. 03/18/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...
LAT...LON 37108584 37248654 37788683 38128688 38988664 39598615
40268519 40178382 39888305 39468256 38718258 38308275
37598366 37118527 37108584
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment