MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0329

ACUS11 KWNS 222030
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222030
ALZ000-FLZ000-222130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0329
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 100...

VALID 222030Z - 222130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 100 CONTINUES.

MARGINAL/LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS WW
100...AND EXTENSION BEYOND THE 22Z SCHEDULED EXPIRATION IS UNLIKELY
ATTM.

HIGH REFLECTIVITY STRUCTURES IN LEAD CONVECTIVE BAND FROM CNTRL AL
S/SWWD TO MOBILE BAY HAD LARGELY WEAKENED IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS...EXCEPT JUST N OF MOB WHERE MERGING OF TRAILING CONVECTION
ALONG THE COLD FRONT HAD RECENTLY OCCURRED. OTHER CLUSTERS OFF THE
GULF COAST HAVE STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY ON APPROACH TO THE
COAST.

LOW-LEVEL SLYS HAVE WEAKENED PER EARLIER FORECASTS TO AROUND 20-25
KT AT 1 KM AGL IN BOTH MOB AND EVX VWP DATA. THIS WILL FURTHER
CURTAIL WHAT LIMITED POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A BRIEF TORNADO. STRONG
WIND GUSTS /32 KT AT MOB AT 1950Z/ MAY STILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE
MORE ROBUST CORES...BUT SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW OWING TO
THE DIFFUSE REFLECTIVITY STRUCTURES AND LACK OF AN INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.

..GRAMS.. 03/22/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 30258821 30998819 31718763 32278742 32208691 31968672
30258715 29968726 29858807 29938817 30258821

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