MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0344

ACUS11 KWNS 241603
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241603
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-WVZ000-241800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0344
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...LEE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO THE VA/NC/SC
PIEDMONT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241603Z - 241800Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL
SUPERCELLS EXPECTED WITHIN AN ARCING BAND OF SEMI-DISCRETE TSTMS.
PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...WITH EVENTUAL THREATS
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE PROBABILITY OF A WW
ISSUANCE IS 95 PERCENT.

15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS A SERIES OF WEAK CYCLONES ALONG A FRACTURED
COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN VA INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS SWWD INTO CNTRL GA.
AN ARCING BAND OF TCU/SMALL CBS RUNNING ALONG THIS AXIS SHOULD SERVE
AS THE FOCUS FOR ROBUST TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-AFTERNOON GIVEN
FURTHER HEATING AND AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES DOWNSTREAM OF
UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT
WITH ADVERTISING THIS SCENARIO.

EVIDENCE OF BACKING MID-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN 12Z GSO/RNK
RAOBS ALONG WITH CURRENT FCX/RAH VWP DATA. THIS WEAKNESS IN THE
HODOGRAPH MAY LIMIT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES INITIALLY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE SWLY WIND PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL AND RESULT IN STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KT.
WITH MLCAPE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG...THREAT
FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST. SOMEWHAT STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL SWLYS AMIDST MORE BACKED NEAR-SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
BE MAINTAINED FARTHER E ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SHOULD AID IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..GRAMS.. 03/24/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 35278152 36158132 36888165 37368140 37598084 37548044
37077948 36207925 34607989 33868072 33668137 33688190
34068243 34428217 35278152

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