MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0361

ACUS11 KWNS 252156
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252156
NCZ000-SCZ000-252330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0361
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0456 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...NERN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 252156Z - 252330Z

A FEW STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
THROUGH 00Z ACROSS ERN NC AND NERN SC...WITH THE THREAT DECREASING
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ANY INSTANCES OF SVR STORMS WILL BE
SPORADIC...AT MOST...AND A WW IS NOT WARRANTED.

PULSE STORMS CONTINUE BETWEEN A DIFFUSE SFC FRONT /EXTENDING FROM
THE OUTER BANKS WWD INTO PARTS OF CNTRL NC/ AND A SFC TROUGH
/EXTENDING FROM A SUB-SYNOPTIC-SCALE LOW CENTERED INVOF THE FRONT NW
OF CAPE HATTERAS SWWD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST/. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY OWING TO EARLIER INSOLATION...AND MODESTLY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MID-LEVEL COLD CORE OVER
THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION UNTIL NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION STRENGTHENS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LARGELY
DISORGANIZED OWING TO WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR PER REGIONAL VWP DATA. THE
STRONGEST STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF INSTANCES OF
QUARTER-SIZE HAIL ON AN ISOLATED BASIS...MAINLY OVER SERN NC AND
NERN SC. ALSO...AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY MAY SUPPORT A
FEW WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS OVER E-CNTRL SECTIONS OF THE NC COASTAL
PLAIN. HOWEVER...EVEN HERE...THE MARGINAL DEGREE OF BUOYANCY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN MARGINALLY SVR HAIL OR
PERHAPS GUSTY SFC WINDS.

..COHEN.. 03/25/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON 33887791 33587878 33687936 34137951 34797889 34967745
35307686 35857668 35997620 35897588 35737549 35197557
34617637 34517720 33887791

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.