MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0362

ACUS11 KWNS 262014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262014
TXZ000-NMZ000-262215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0362
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN NM...TX PERMIAN BASIN AND ERN TRANS-PECOS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 262014Z - 262215Z

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF FAR SERN NM...THE TX PERMIAN BASIN AND ERN
TRANS-PECOS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT THE THREAT WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR A WW.

AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD
THROUGH ERN NM INTO THE TX TRANS-PECOS. TEMPERATURES ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY ARE WARMING INTO THE 80S...WITH 40S TO LOW-MID 50S
DEWPOINTS PRESENT TO ITS E. STRONG HEATING AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /IN EXCESS OF 8 C
PER KM/ ARE CONTRIBUTING TOWARD WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH
MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION INVOF THE DRYLINE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS GLANCING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE VORT
MAX EMERGING OUT OF CNTRL NM WILL LIKELY AID IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR. THOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG /I.E. 0-6 KM BULK WIND DIFFERENCE
FROM 20-30 KT/...10-20 KT E-SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ENHANCE
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW AND UPDRAFT STRENGTH BENEATH 30 KT MIDLEVEL
SWLYS. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER LOCATED
ACROSS THE REGION ALSO SUGGESTS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

..GARNER.. 03/26/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 29740439 32300365 33260227 32800117 31460136 29710263
28980320 29740439

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