SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272355
TXZ000-280130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0369
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS...EDWARDS
PLATEAU...AND TRANS-PECOS REGION OF TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 272355Z - 280130Z
A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SVR STORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS...EDWARDS PLATEAU...AND TRANS-PECOS REGION OF TX THIS
EVENING. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REQUIRED.
A SMALL...FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE
TRANS-PECOS REGION WILL MOVE SEWD OVER SRN SECTIONS OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU ADJACENT TO THE RIO GRANDE RIVER THIS EVENING...AND
POTENTIALLY PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT. THIS MCS IS ACCOMPANIED BY A
WELL-DEFINED COLD POOL...WITH PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF 5 MB PER 2
HRS NOTED OVER SWRN TX IN THE WAKE OF THE LEADING CONVECTIVE LINE.
HEAVY RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY AS IT ENTERS RICHER TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE CURRENTLY TO ITS EAST PER GPS PW DATA...WILL BE OF
INCREASING CONCERN. WHILE THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE MCS IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ONLY MODEST...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND GUSTS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT OWING TO THE SYSTEM-ENHANCED COLD POOL CIRCULATION.
FARTHER NORTH...CONVECTION WILL BE MORE ISOLATED.
HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG A DRYLINE ORIENTED NNE-SSW ACROSS
PARTS OF WRN TX HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF REAGAN COUNTY. ONE OR TWO
ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD DEVELOP AS HORIZONTAL DENSITY CONTRASTS
ACROSS THE DRYLINE INCREASE IN TANDEM WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING BEFORE
CINH INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY. MODERATE INSTABILITY EAST OF THE
DRYLINE WILL ALLOW THIS CONVECTION TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. AND...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 30-35 KT
/ENHANCED MAINLY BY MODERATE HIGH LEVEL FLOW ATOP WEAKER LOW- AND
MID-LEVEL FLOW/...LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH ATTENDANT
THREATS OF ISOLATED SVR HAIL/WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AFTER 02Z OWING TO NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION.
..COHEN.. 03/27/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 32510087 32550029 32220003 31740018 30750018 29899981
29140009 28950070 29360236 29820281 30880235 31600178
32100144 32510087
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