MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0372

ACUS11 KWNS 281643
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281643
VAZ000-WVZ000-MDZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-281845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0372
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHERN OH/EASTERN KY AND MUCH OF WV AND
ADJACENT VA/MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 281643Z - 281845Z

A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN OH AND ESPECIALLY INTO
EASTERN KY/MUCH OF WV AND ADJACENT PARTS OF VA/MD. A WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR MUCH OF THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

ELEVATED STRONG/SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE TSTMS WITH HAIL CONTINUE TO
OCCUR NEAR THE OH/WV/PA BORDER REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THESE STORMS MAY BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM. FARTHER
SOUTHWEST...ADDITIONAL SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN OH INTO EASTERN KY/MUCH OF WV THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THIS CORRIDOR...CINH CONTINUES TO QUICKLY ERODE
THROUGH MIXING...WITH MOIST ADVECTION ALSO OCCURRING VIA THE
EASTWARD ADVECTION OF A RELATIVELY HIGHER MOIST PLUME ALONG THE
LOWER OH RIVER PER GPS/SATELLITE DERIVED PW. ACCORDINGLY...RECENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS INDICATIVE OF AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY
LAYER CUMULUS ACROSS EASTERN KY TO CENTRAL WV TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE COLD FRONT/ZONE OF CONFLUENCE.

GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN AN
AFTERNOON UPSWING OF SURFACE BASED TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. EVEN
WITH MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /GENERALLY 50S F SFC
DEWPOINTS/...ADDITIONAL HEATING/MOIST ADVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL ALLOW FOR MLCAPES TO REACH 1000+ J/KG ESPECIALLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS SPINE. WITH THE REGION ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...STRONG/NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS
OTHERWISE MORE COMMON. DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS.

..GUYER.. 03/28/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON 39027827 37987972 37278273 37608387 38598384 39248237
39857960 39537823 39027827

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