SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291653
MOZ000-291830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF N CNTRL MISSOURI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 291653Z - 291830Z
AN INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE NEAR TERM IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER IS READILY EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHIFTING EAST OF KIRKSVILLE MO TOWARD
THE QUINCY IL AREA. IN ITS WAKE...MID-LEVEL INHIBITION REMAINS WEAK
ENOUGH ALONG A LINGERING LOW-LEVEL WARM FRONTAL ZONE TO ALLOW
CONTINUING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF CHILLICOTHE
MO. BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MOIST WESTERLY STORM
INFLOW...ABOVE A RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER...APPEARS TO BE
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATELY LARGE CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS IS
SUPPORTING OCCASIONALLY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...WITH AT LEAST MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR DUE
PRIMARILY TO VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT BENEATH 20-30 KT WEST
NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD CONTINUE
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESSION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...LATEST RUC GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT INCREASING INHIBITION
WITH CONTINUED MID-LEVEL WARMING...AND WEAKENING LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT...COULD RESULT IN DIMINISHING TRENDS TO CONVECTION BY
20-21Z...IF NOT BEFORE.
..KERR.. 03/29/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...
LAT...LON 40189392 40139290 39789205 39039216 39009300 39489431
39909434 40189392
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