WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 116

WWUS20 KWNS 292233
SEL6
SPC WW 292233
KSZ000-OKZ000-300300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 116
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
535 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EAST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 535 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF TOPEKA KANSAS TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF GAGE
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 115...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY ALONG A SURFACE DRYLINE IN NW OK...AND AS THE
DRYLINE IS OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL KS. MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARIES...WHERE STRONG
SURFACE HEATING AND FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ARE WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS ON THE LOWER
MARGINS FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS /PRIMARILY IN KS/...BUT THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD PEAK BY LATE EVENING...AND THEN DECREASE BY 02-03Z AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL AND THE CAP AGAIN STRENGTHENS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27020.

...THOMPSON

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