SWODY1
SPC AC 200147
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0847 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012
VALID 200142Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN TX INTO OK AND SERN
KS...
AMENDED TO EXPAND SLIGHT RISK FARTHER WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED
HAIL STORM
...WRN TX...
ISOLATED AND ELEVATED SUPERCELL STORM HAS DEVELOPED IN POST FRONTAL
REGION JUST NE OF LUBBOCK...PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL. LONGEVITY OF
THIS STORM IS UNCERTAIN...BUT COULD TRACK INTO NWRN TX DURING THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
...NRN TX THROUGH OK...
EARLY THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM A SFC LOW IN SERN IA
SWWD THROUGH SERN KS...CNTRL AND SWRN OK INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF WRN
TX. DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM SWRN TX JUST WEST OF DEL RIO NWD INTO NWRN
TX WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. AN AXIS OF
800-1000 J/KG MLCAPE EXTENDS FROM NWRN TX THROUGH CNTRL OK WHERE
PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE OVERSPREAD MODEST MOIST AXIS WITH
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S. STORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
DEVELOPING GENERALLY FROM THE DRYLINE COLD FRONT INTERSECTION OVER
NWRN TX NWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO W CNTRL OK. STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEXT FEW HOURS AS DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT
ATTENDING SRN HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERTAKES THE FRONTAL
CIRCULATION. A MID LEVEL JET ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF THE TROUGH IS
PROMOTING 40-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. LATER
THIS EVENING SOME OF THE STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO SMALL CLUSTERS OR
LINE SEGMENTS. PRIMARY THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
...ERN KS THROUGH WRN/NRN MO AND SERN IA...
STORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING ALONG COLD FRONT FROM SERN
IA SWWD INTO SERN KS. DESPITE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR FROM NRN MO INTO
SERN IA...HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON THE SLIGHT RISK WHERE LAPSE RATES AND
INSTABILITY ARE VERY WEAK. THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW STORMS MIGHT
BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY ACROSS SERN KS.
..DIAL.. 04/20/2012
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