DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1

ACUS01 KWNS 010216
SWODY1
SPC AC 010214

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0914 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN TX INTO OK AND SRN
KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN KS INTO OH AND WRN PA
AND WV...

CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC

...KS/OK/TX...
NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF SUPERCELLS WERE ONGOING AS OF 0040Z. ONE
CLUSTER WITH NOTABLE MESOCYCLONES WAS MOVING INTO S CNTRL KS...ALONG
THE WARM FRONT. HAIL AS WELL AS TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.OTHER DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING OVER NERN OK ON THE WARM
FRONT. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 637.

ANOTHER CLUSTER WAS OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL.
ALL THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY EWD ACROSS AN UNSTABLE
AND UNCAPPED WARM SECTOR. THE 00Z OUN SOUNDING SHOWED ZERO CIN AND
2550 MLCAPE. LOW LEVEL VEERING WINDS WILL ONLY INCREASE THIS
EVENING. STORMS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL MOST LIKELY AFFECT SWRN
OK AS HODOGRAPHS FAVOR RIGHT MOVERS...BUT SOME CELLS COULD PERSIST
AND/OR SPLIT INTO CNTRL OK OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL...WIND...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FARTHER S...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF DRYLINE STORMS PERSIST WITH LARGE
HAILERS OVER NW TX AND A SMALL MCS WITH WIND AND HAIL ACROSS THE
LOWER PECOS RIVER/RIO GRANDE REGION

...OH...KY...WRN PA...WV...
SOMEWHAT LOOSELY ORGANIZED BAND/CLUSTERS OF STORMS WERE MOVING
RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS WRN OK AND CNTRL KY AS OF 00Z...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED IN STRONG MEAN WLY FLOW. THE
AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS UNSTABLE AND EXPERIENCED
FULL HEATING DURING THE DAY. WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
EXISTING COLD POOLS...SOME THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS. HAIL IS MOST LIKELY OVER KY AND WV...WITH A WIND THREAT
AREA-WIDE.

..JEWELL.. 05/01/2012

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