SWODY1
SPC AC 240533
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2012
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS A LARGE ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH BEGINS LIFTING NEWD/AWAY FROM THE
SERN CONUS...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC IS PROGGED TO BEGIN
ADVANCING TOWARD THE CA COAST AS A SECOND LOW BEGINS DIGGING SWD OUT
OF THE GULF OF CA. MEANWHILE...BETWEEN THE ERN AND WRN U.S.
TROUGHS...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER
THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...A DEEP LOW INITIALLY OVER SRN ONTARIO IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NWD ACROSS QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...A MORE COMPLEX
PATTERN IS PROGGED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH SURFACE TROUGHING
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...A WEAK LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND IN BETWEEN -- A WARM FRONT
FORECAST TO EXTEND ESEWD ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MO VALLEY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
...NRN GREAT BASIN/ERN PORTIONS OF THE PAC NW EWD TO THE NRN
PLAINS...
AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT ARC NEWD/EWD ACROSS THE REGION --
WITHIN FAST FLOW ON THE NRN SIDE OF THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE...SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN CONJUNCTION
WITH DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. INITIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST FROM PARTS OF NV NWD AND EWD INTO MT/NRN
WY...WHERE A FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINAL
HAIL. WITH TIME...CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD EWD OUT OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND INTO ERN MT AND EVENTUALLY THE NRN PLAINS. HERE...A
DEEP DRY BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PROMOTE EVAPORATIVELY-COOLED DOWNDRAFTS
-- AND THUS AN EWD EXPANSION OF 5% WIND PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS
REGION IS WARRANTED FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS.
...MID/LOWER MO VALLEY INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH/TN VALLEY REGION...
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION -- ASSOCIATED WITH A WLY LOW-LEVEL JET
TRANSLATING SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. -- ATOP A WARM FRONT
PROGGED TO EXTEND ESEWD ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD FUEL A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY TO REMAIN
CAPPED HINDERING SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT...ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY REMAIN MARGINAL/ISOLATED...AND CONFINED MAINLY TO HAIL.
..GOSS.. 04/24/2012
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