SWODY1
SPC AC 080048
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT SAT APR 07 2012
VALID 080100Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...
...SRN PLAINS...
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING IN WCNTRL TX
ALONG A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE LOWER 60S F AND MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 1500
TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. THIS ALONG WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN THE STORMS FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS WITH A SLOW SWD TRANSITION ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. STEEP
LAPSE RATES ACROSS WCNTRL TX WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST
DOMINANT CELL EMBEDDED IN THE LINE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS SHOULD LESSEN WITH TIME THIS
EVENING AS THE LINE ENCOUNTERS WEAKER SHEAR PROFILES TO THE SOUTH. A
WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD ALSO EXIST WITH THE LINE WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANGELO WHERE MESOANALYSIS
SUGGESTS INSTABILITY IS THE STRONGEST. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING WITH THE THREAT
PROBABLY BECOMING MARGINAL AFTER 03Z.
..BROYLES.. 04/08/2012
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