SWODY1
SPC AC 231608
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CDT MON APR 23 2012
VALID 231630Z - 241200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS WITH A DEEP LOW
AND OCCLUDING CYCLONE INVOF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND AN UPSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EJECTING
NWD FROM SRN CA TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN...AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
THE ROCKIES RIDGE. A BROAD PLUME OF STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
COVERS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL DAYS OF
STRONG SURFACE HEATING...AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THIS LAPSE RATE PLUME AGAIN TODAY...PRIMARILY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ROCKIES...NRN SIERRA...AND ORE CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
...NRN CA/ORE TO THE NRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
AN INCREASE IN PW OF 0.1-0.2 INCH HAS BEEN NOTED SINCE YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR PAC NW/NRN GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES AREA.
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP /AOA 7.5 C PER KM/...AND DAYTIME
HEATING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN SHOULD SUPPORT WIDELY-SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE MORE
PROBABLE ZONES FOR STORM INITIATION WILL BE ACROSS N/NE CA NWD TO
NEAR AND JUST E OF THE CASCADES IN ORE...WITH OTHER STORM
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NRN ID/WRN MT. MLCAPE
OF 500-1000 J/KG AND DEEP-LAYER SSWLY WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A
RISK OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...AND A STORM OR TWO WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS ORE THIS EVENING.
..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 04/23/2012
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