SWODY2
SPC AC 011730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN APR 01 2012
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...
...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES ON
MONDAY. TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM...A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHERE AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST FROM SW TX NWD INTO WCNTRL OK. A CAPPING INVERSION WILL
ALSO EXIST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY BUT A
WEAKENING CAP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DISTINCT DRYLINE IN WCNTRL TX
EXTENDING NWD TO A COLD FRONT IN WRN OK. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD ALSO TAKE PLACE ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NW OK EXTENDING
NEWD INTO SRN KS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE NEAR ABILENE
AND BRADY TX AT 00Z SHOW IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS WITH MLCAPE OF
3000 TO 4500 J/KG AND 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 TO 8.5 C/KM.
THIS ALONG WITH 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD EASILY
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE DOMINANT STORMS. AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AS
STORM COVERAGE INCREASES DURING THE EVENING.
FURTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN NWRN OK AND SRN
KS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODERATE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTING A SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST THERE
MONDAY EVENING. LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE AS STEEP AS TO
THE SOUTH BUT THE STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
EFFICIENT HAIL PRODUCTION. THE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT SHOULD HELP ORGANIZE THE STORMS INTO A LINE. THIS FACTOR
COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN A GREATER
WIND DAMAGE THREAT THERE THAN IN AREAS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.
...WRN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY MONDAY
AS AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS FROM ERN MO NEWD INTO
ERN IA. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON NORTH
OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY NEAR AN INVERTED TROUGH AND ALONG THE
AXIS OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN ERN MN AND WRN WI. THE STORMS SHOULD
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS WI AND NRN IL MONDAY
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS MONDAY EVENING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW
MUCAPE IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AROUND
30 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT
A MARGINAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL BUT THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT.
..BROYLES.. 04/01/2012
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