SWODY2
SPC AC 021730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT MON APR 02 2012
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF OK AND TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE U.S. TUESDAY. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
IN PROCESS OF CUTTING OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL DRIFT EWD AND
IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NM TUESDAY MORNING. BEING CUTOFF FROM THE
FASTER NRN STREAM FLOW...THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY THIS PERIOD
AND LIKELY BE CENTERED OVER SERN CO OR SWRN KS EARLY WEDNESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...VORT MAX NOW OVER ERN TX WILL EJECT INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE CONTINUING THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY. ANOTHER IMPULSE OVER THE NWRN GULF WILL LIFT INTO THE SERN
STATES. OTHERWISE...A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EWD
THROUGH SRN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD FROM A WEAK LOW OVER
THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO A WEAK LOW IN NWRN TX. A PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD
EXTEND SWD FROM THIS LOW THROUGH WCNTRL AND SWRN TX. WARM FRONT WILL
STRETCH FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION SEWD THROUGH KY AND THE
CAROLINAS.
...SRN PLAINS AREA...
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL INITIATE TONIGHT WITHIN ZONE OF FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH NEWD EJECTING VORT LOBE INTERACTING WITH PACIFIC
FRONT MAY BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY FROM PARTS OF CNTRL OK SWD INTO
CNTRL TX. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THESE STORMS TO
INTENSIFY AS THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. MODEL PFCS SHOW
A CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 750 MB AT EML BASE ACROSS ERN TX...AND
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR. HOWEVER...STORMS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY DEVELOP A COLD POOL...AND THE COMBINATION BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING AND DEEP ASCENT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT INTO A PORTION OF ERN TX DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR DESTABILIZATION AND REDEVELOPMENT IN
WAKE OF INITIAL STORMS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
WEAK...BUT STORMS DEVELOPING IN PROXIMITY TO PACIFIC FRONT WILL BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF STORM
ORGANIZATION WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY
THREATS.
...NRN IL INTO THE OH VALLEY...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH GLANCES THE AREA...CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE
NEAR A W-E ORIENTED COLD FRONT FROM NRN IL INTO WRN OH. DAYTIME
HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F WILL LEAD TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO
THE EVENING. INITIAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WHERE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK. BUT...WITH TIME...ACTIVITY MAY
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS'S PROPAGATING S AND SEWD CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. THIS AREA WILL
BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN DAY 1 UPDATES.
...SERN MO...WRN KY...WRN TN AND SRN IL...
VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER ERN TX WILL LIFT NEWD INTO WRN TN VALLEY AND
MID MS VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM
THE UPPER MS VALLEY SEWD THROUGH A PORTION OF KY. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL LIKELY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE VORT MAX
WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 7-7.5 MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WHILE
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST...A FEW MULTICELL STORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT ATTENDING THE VORT MAX
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
...TN/MS/AL/GA/SC...
STRONG HEATING WILL LEAD TO AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER A LARGE
AREA...WITH A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
WEAK FLOW WILL FAVOR MULTICELLULAR STORM MODE PROPAGATING IN A
SLY/SELY DIRECTION.
..DIAL.. 04/02/2012
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