SWODY2
SPC AC 240559
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2012
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY...
...MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST/OH VALLEY...
CONCERN REMAINS THAT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR MIXING AND CURRENT/SHORT-TERM FLOW TRAJECTORIES VIA
THE CENTRAL CONUS/GULF OF MEXICO ANTICYCLONE. BUT EVEN SO...BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTENING WILL OCCUR NEAR A SHARPENING WARM FRONT/ADJACENT
WARM SECTOR AS A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT ADVECTS EASTWARD
TOWARD THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY.
SPECIFIC SCENARIO CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN
ANTICIPATED NEBULOUS/LOW AMPLITUDE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...POTENTIAL FOR WARM SECTOR CAPPING...IN ADDITION TO VARIED
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT RISK APPEARS WARRANTED AT
LEAST IN A CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED SENSE. AN ASSORTMENT OF NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATIVE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE
PROGRESSIVE/LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES ALOFT TO COINCIDE
WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN VICINITY OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT...AND ALONG/SOUTH OF A
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
INITIALLY...SOME ELEVATED TSTMS CAPABLE OF HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. INTO THE
AFTERNOON...INITIAL SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY NEAR A SURFACE LOW/TRIPLE POINT...WITH AT
LEAST A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT POSSIBLE PENDING TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...THE RELATIVELY MOST CONFIDENT SCENARIO IS FOR TSTMS TO
NOCTURNALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AFTER DARK AS LOW
LEVEL JET AIDED ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES ALONG/NORTHEAST OF THE
WARM FRONT. AT THE VERY LEAST...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT/AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AMID A HIGH DEGREE OF VERTICAL
SHEAR.
...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH BACKING/STRENGTHENING
FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES/DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE
COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER DAY OF
SPORADIC HAIL/GUSTY TSTM WIND POTENTIAL MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING GIVEN INCREASING
PRECIPITABLE WATER/VERTICAL SHEAR.
...FAR SOUTHERN CA/AZ...
A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
APPROACH FAR SOUTHERN CA/NORTHERN BAJA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ANTICIPATED LIMITED BUOYANCY PRECLUDES SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME...BUT SOME SMALL HAIL AND/OR WATERSPOUTS CANNOT CURRENTLY BE
RULED OUT FOR COASTAL FAR SOUTHERN CA/ADJACENT OFFSHORE AREAS.
..GUYER.. 04/24/2012
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