DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 260525
SWODY2
SPC AC 260523

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 AM CDT THU APR 26 2012

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRI AFTN AND EVE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES REMAINS SIZABLE
CONCERNING DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN A BLOCKY UPPER FLOW REGIME DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD...PARTICULARLY NEAR/EAST OF THE ROCKIES. IN
GENERAL THOUGH...AT LEAST A COUPLE OF BRANCHES OF STRONGER FLOW
APPEAR LIKELY TO BE DEFLECTED AROUND AN INCREASINGLY PROMINENT UPPER
HIGH CENTER OR RIDGE AXIS FORMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN
PROVINCES...AND A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING TO ITS SOUTHWEST ...ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

BENEATH THE CONFLUENCE OF THESE TWO STREAMS...TO THE EAST OF THE
BLOCK...COLD SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO NOSE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION BY EARLY FRIDAY. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LIKELY WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID
ATLANTIC COAST REGION...THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...INTO THE
VICINITY OF A LOW CENTER WITHIN A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS.

THE SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION OF THIS LATTER FEATURE REMAINS ONE OF THE
POINTS OF UNCERTAINTY...AS THE ASSOCIATED REMNANTS OF A CLOSED LOW
/NOW MIGRATING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ BECOME INCREASING
SHEARED OR DEFORMED WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A SLOW...GENERALLY
EASTWARD...PROGRESSION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS APPEARS REASONABLY
LIKELY.

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STILL APPEARS
UNLIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BUT...MOISTURE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE SURFACE WAVE MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MODERATELY
LARGE CAPE BENEATH CONTINUING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE BREADTH OF THE WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT WRAPPING
INTO THE LOW CENTER ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS...MAY BE MORE OF A
QUESTION...AS EAST SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW EMERGING FROM THE
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT MAY MAINTAIN A
SUBSTANTIAL COOL/STABLE NEAR SURFACE LAYER ACROSS THE OZARKS INTO
PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.

GIVEN AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION...INHIBITION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENTLY WEAK
TO ALLOW VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR A
COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS...LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR THIS APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...WHILE WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND ABOVE THE IMMEDIATE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT...WITH AT LEAST LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...FROM PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI,

..KERR.. 04/26/2012

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