DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 231651
SWODY2
SPC AC 231650

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT MON APR 23 2012

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SERN NEB TO WRN KY...

UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY2
PERIOD WITH WEAK HEIGHT RISES POSSIBLE INTO THE MID MS/TN VALLEY
REGION LATE. AS SFC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO SLY FLOW
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND A WARM FRONT SHOULD ESTABLISH
ITSELF ORIENTED ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE NEB/KS BORDER...SEWD INTO WRN
KY BY 25/00Z. THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT SHOULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS
FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD.

LATEST NAM SUGGESTS STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE PLAINS WHICH WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER
80S INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE PLAINS PORTION OF THE WARM FRONT
NEAR THE KS BORDER. IN FACT PFC FOR CNK AT 23Z EXHIBITS SBCAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 1300 J/KG WITH A 94/45 TEMP/DEW POINT. IF THIS TYPE OF
READING IS ATTAINED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE WILL BE REACHED AND HIGH
BASED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. A SLOW
SSEWD MOVEMENT OFF THE BOUNDARY WOULD THEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NERN KS. GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL COULD BE
NOTED INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

ANOTHER ZONE WHERE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP WILL BE FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE
MID MS VALLEY WITHIN A ZONE OF INCREASING WARM ADVECTION. WNWLY
45KT LLJ IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THIS
MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION. MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS AS THEY SPREAD
SEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY LATE.

...NRN ROCKIES...

UPPER RIDGE MAY FLATTEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT PRIMARILY SFC-BASED HEATING WILL BE THE INSTIGATOR IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL WITH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO ONLY RANGE FROM .50-60 INCH.
EVEN SO RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY STORMS THAT FORM ACROSS ERN ORE INTO SWRN MT
WILL DO SO WITHIN A ZONE OF MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAT COULD
SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS. MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL IS THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..DARROW.. 04/23/2012

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