DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 210523
SWODY2
SPC AC 210522

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 AM CDT SAT APR 21 2012

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE...STILL IN THE PROCESS OF BUILDING ACROSS THE
PACIFIC COAST STATES THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...APPEARS
LIKELY TO REMAIN PROMINENT THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LITTLE IF
ANY EASTWARD PROGRESSION IS FORECAST AS A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT
CLOSED LOWS DEVELOP EITHER SIDE OF IT...ONE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...THE OTHER EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BY 12Z
MONDAY...THE LATTER FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CENTERED NEAR THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED DEEP SURFACE LOW CENTER
NEAR/EAST OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST.

IT NOW APPEARS PROBABLE THAT CYCLOGENESIS WILL GENERALLY OCCUR OFF
THE SOUTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COAST. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT YET SEEM
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE WARM SECTOR COULD ADVECT
INLAND ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR AT LEAST LOW SEVERE STORM
PROBABILITIES. BUT...THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER INLAND
AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IS EXPECTED TO BE WINDING DOWN BY 12Z
SUNDAY. DRYING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ON
NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH MOST AREAS EAST OF
THE HIGH PLAINS...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE GULF COAST...AND AN
INCREASINGLY LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN INTO MID ATLANTIC COAST.

MEANWHILE...BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST...STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG HEATING WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHIC FORCING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER...INCLUDING A FEW WHICH MAY ADVECT WITHIN
NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW OFF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THIS
REGION MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS...BUT DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED SPARSE STORM COVERAGE...SEVERE PROBABILITIES STILL
APPEAR LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.

..KERR.. 04/21/2012

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