SWODY3
SPC AC 170707
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 AM CDT TUE APR 17 2012
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...NW MO TO NW TX...
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY DAY3
AS THE NAM IS PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE IN THE EWD TRANSLATION OF
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER AND GENERALLY AGREE WITH EACH
OTHER ALLOWING MORE ENERGY TO DIG ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES TOWARD
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE EVENING THURSDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH BUT WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS OF A STRONGER LEE CYCLONE ACROSS THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE AT 20/00Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY HIGH ACROSS THIS REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR LATE
APRIL...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AFTER 21Z ALONG THE
WIND SHIFT FROM ERN KS...SWWD INTO WRN OK IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC
LOW. ANY STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST AT
ROUGHLY 25-30KT INTO A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY THAT
SHOULD SUPPORT ROBUST UPDRAFTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME
WILL ONLY INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBS GIVEN THAT MODELS DIFFER SO
GREATLY ON SHORT-WAVE PLACEMENT.
..DARROW.. 04/17/2012
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