DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 220714
SWODY3
SPC AC 220712

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2012

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
00Z-BASED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT AN AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS/CANADA THROUGH TUESDAY.
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BE FLANKED BY A DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC...IN ADDITION TO
DUAL UPPER TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

...NORTHERN ROCKIES...
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ONE OR MORE LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSES WILL
CREST THE ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE...WITH A GRADUAL /ALBEIT MODEST/
MOISTENING OF THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN AN UPSWING OF POSSIBLE TSTMS ESPECIALLY FROM FAR
EASTERN ORE/WA INTO ID/MT. STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODEST CAPE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER TSTMS CAPABLE OF HAIL/GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS NORTHERN ID AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MT.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS SUFFICIENTLY
LIMITED/UNCERTAIN AS TO NOT CURRENTLY WARRANT LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES.

...UPPER MIDWEST/MO VALLEY/UPPER MS VALLEY...
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND ADJACENT UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. CONSEQUENTIAL MOISTURE RETURN IS UNLIKELY
THROUGH TUESDAY GIVEN PERSISTENCE OF CONTINENTAL NEAR-GULF OF MEXICO
TRAJECTORIES...BUT A DEGREE OF MOISTENING WILL NONETHELESS OCCUR
INTO THE REGION BENEATH THE STRENGTHENING CAP. BASED ON CURRENT
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
TSTMS COULD DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR A SURFACE LOW AND WEAK
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH...AND MORE SO TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE
CAP IN AREAS NEAR/NORTHEAST OF A WARM FRONT.

CONSIDERABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE VARIABILITY DOES EXIST AMID PROGGED
LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BUT TSTM DEVELOPMENT
CURRENTLY SEEMS PLAUSIBLE ANYWHERE FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MN
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MO AND IL/SOUTHERN WI. WHILE SOME HAIL
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME WITHIN THIS
CORRIDOR...AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE VARIABILITY AND CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL PRECLUDE PROBABILITIES AT THE
DAY 3 JUNCTURE.

..GUYER.. 04/22/2012

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