DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 220822
SWOD48
SPC AC 220822

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2012

VALID 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL
PERSISTENCE OF AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN MUCH OF THE PERIOD...HIGHLIGHTED
BY A SLOW GENERAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES/TOWARD THE PLAINS FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD /DAYS 4-7/.

INITIALLY FOR DAY 4/WEDNESDAY...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY
EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SOUTHEAST MOVING SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT AND PARENT LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A FEW STRONG TSTMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA AS AN UPPER TROUGH/ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES
INLAND ON DAY 4/WEDNESDAY.

THEREAFTER...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION...ALTHOUGH
INITIALLY LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND UNCERTAIN SPECIFIC EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH PRECLUDE ANY 30 PERCENT SEVERE AREAS AT THIS
TIME. NONETHELESS...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AT LEAST
ISOLATED/POTENTIAL SLIGHT RISK-CALIBER SEVERE THREATS COULD EXIST
DAY 5/THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS/PERHAPS ROCKIES FRONT RANGE...AND INTO DAYS 6-7
FRIDAY/SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS POTENTIALLY
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF KS/OK/NORTHWEST TX AND POSSIBLY THE ADJACENT
MO VALLEY.

..GUYER.. 04/22/2012

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