DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 280907
SWOD48
SPC AC 280906

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0406 AM CDT SAT APR 28 2012

VALID 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT UPPER PATTERN WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO A
QUASI-ZONAL PROGRESSIVE BY TUESDAY /DAY 4/. MODIFIED CP AIR WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN NWD THROUGH THE PLAINS...MS AND OH VALLEYS BENEATH
MODERATELY STRONG FLOW ALOFT. POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER COVERAGE OF
SEVERE STORMS MAY EVOLVE OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY DAY 4 DOWNSTREAM FROM AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER ON AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE WITH THE ECMWF BEING SLOWER AND EJECTING THE IMPULSE NORTH
OF THE MORE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW EARLY WARM ADVECTION STORMS WILL AFFECT NWD BOUNDARY
LAYER RECOVERY.

SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY SHIFT A LITTLE FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY /DAY 5/ AS ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND STORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT SUPPORTED BY A MOISTENING WARM SECTOR.

..DIAL.. 04/28/2012

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