SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012042
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-012215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0407
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CDT SUN APR 01 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL IL...CNTRL IND...WCNTRL OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 012042Z - 012215Z
LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS DEEPER CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS ARE
DEVELOPING ACROSS ECNTRL IL INVOF IROQUOIS/VERMILION COUNTIES. THIS
IS LIKELY INDICATIVE OF STRONG THERMAL HEATING AT LOW LEVELS AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD GRADUAL SAG
SWD INTO THIS ZONE OF STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD
ENCOURAGE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS
SCENARIO IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...THOUGH DEEP WLY FLOW MAY
DELAY THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 22-23Z TIME FRAME. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS THAT WOULD
MOVE SEWD AT ROUGHLY 25-30KT. LATEST THINKING IS AN E-W CORRIDOR OF
CONVECTION COULD EVOLVE ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
WHICH WOULD POSE AT LEAST A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH.
..DARROW.. 04/01/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...
LAT...LON 41088765 40818390 39528390 39858762 41088765
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