Wednesday, April 11, 2012

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0492

ACUS11 KWNS 112308
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112308
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-120045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0492
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0608 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE/SOUTHEAST CO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 155...

VALID 112308Z - 120045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 155 CONTINUES.

TORNADO WATCH 155 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z. LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE...IN ADDITION TO AN ISOLATED
TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

PRIMARY SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL WITHIN TORNADO WATCH 155 WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WITH AN ONGOING SUPERCELL AROUND 25-30 MILES NNE OF
AMARILLO AS OF 2300Z. LARGE HAIL/PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS AS THIS STORM REMAINS IN A
RELATIVELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAR A WNW-ESE ORIENTED SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT ROUGHLY BISECTS THE TX PANHANDLE. SOME TORNADO THREAT
WILL PRINCIPALLY REMAIN WITH THIS STORM /AND PERHAPS ANY OTHER
NEAR-BOUNDARY DEVELOPMENT/ AS THE WSR-88D VWP FROM AMARILLO IS
INDICATIVE OF RELATIVELY STRONG 1-2 KM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH 0-1
KM SRH OF 150 M2/S2. THAT SAID...INFLOW INTO THIS STORM IS
CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY LIMITED MOISTURE/PERSISTENT MIXING IN
THE ADJACENT WARM SECTOR...SUCH THAT ANY TORNADO THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN RELATIVELY BRIEF. OTHERWISE...AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET/ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING WITH A
TENDENCY FOR STORM MERGERS/UPDRAFT INTERFERENCE...WHILE OTHERWISE
MAINTAINING ONGOING STRONG STORMS ACROSS FAR EASTERN NM/TX SOUTH
PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FARTHER NORTH...CELL MERGERS WITH A DEGREE OF SHORT-TERM UPSCALE
GROWTH IS PROBABLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST CO OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD WANE TOWARD/AFTER SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER/ASSOCIATED INFLOW COOLS.

..GUYER.. 04/11/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 37810371 37950293 36790172 35530020 34910097 34980277
36310291 37810371

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