SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122202
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-122330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0501
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0502 PM CDT THU APR 12 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CO/SOUTHWEST NEB/WESTERN KS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 157...
VALID 122202Z - 122330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 157 CONTINUES.
TORNADO WATCH 157 CONTINUES UNTIL 02Z...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES/LARGE HAIL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A SEVERE
THREAT /MAINLY HAIL/ MAY DEVELOP NORTHWARD OUT OF WW 157...SUCH THAT
A WATCH EXTENSION/NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH COULD BE NEEDED.
PRIMARY SHORT-TERM SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST NEB/NORTHWEST KS BORDER REGION THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT FORCING FOR
ASCENT/UPPER JET EXIT REGION IS INFLUENCING THIS REGION...AND THIS
CORRIDOR IS LOCATED NEAR/JUST NORTH OF A SURFACE TRIPLE POINT WITH A
SURFACE LOW ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST CO AND A SOUTHWARD
EXTENDING DRYLINE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
EVENING WITHIN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...WITH A LARGE HAIL
THREAT ALSO POSSIBLE WITH INCREASINGLY ELEVATED STORMS SPREADING
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEB.
FARTHER SOUTH...RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS ARE INDICATIVE OF DEEPENING
CU FIELD NEAR THE DRYLINE ALONG CO/KS BORDER...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
AN UPSWING OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AT LEAST ON
AN ISOLATED BASIS. GIVEN SUCH DEVELOPMENT...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST AS
WELL ESPECIALLY GIVEN NEAR/POST-SUNSET POTENTIAL FOR A NOCTURNAL LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASE AND ABATED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.
..GUYER.. 04/12/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40090349 41500257 41970047 40360098 37830116 37970257
39460263 40090349
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