MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0503

ACUS11 KWNS 122306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122306
TXZ000-OKZ000-130100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0503
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0606 PM CDT THU APR 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN TX PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TX INTO FAR WESTERN
OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 122306Z - 130100Z

AS A FOLLOW-UP TO MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 500...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE
STILL BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TX/EASTERN TX PANHANDLE INTO FAR WESTERN OK
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. INCIPIENT SIGNS/INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF DEEP
CONVECTIVE INITIATION COULD PROMPT A WATCH ISSUANCE.

AFTER A BOUT OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING OR AT LEAST NEBULOUS FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALOFT...WATER VAPOR/VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS /EG. REFERENCE
CIRRUS ACROSS NM INTO FAR WEST TX AND TECUMCARI NM WIND PROFILER/
IMPLY THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
INFLUENCE THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. THE DRYLINE HAS RECENTLY
MIXED A BIT EASTWARD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...WITH DEDUCED SIGNS OF
INCREASING MASS CONVERGENCE PER SURFACE OBS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
DRYLINE AND A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ARCING DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY/WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST
OK/WESTERN PART OF NORTH TX. ACCORDINGLY...VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS
DO REFLECT A DEGREE OF DEEPENING/THICKENING OF THE CU FIELD NEAR THE
CDS AND TX/OK BORDER VICINITY.

WHILE THE LIKELIHOOD/EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTIVE IMITATION IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR APPEARS CONDITIONALLY MOST
FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS NOTION IS SUPPORTED BY GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE 18Z
NAM/GFS...WITH EACH INDICATIVE OF CONVECTION PRECIPITATION BETWEEN
00Z-03Z. SHOULD SUCH DEVELOPMENT OCCUR...SUPERCELLS WOULD BE
PROBABLE WITHIN AN UNSTABLE /2000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ AND AMPLE
VERTICAL SHEAR /45 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR/ ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A LARGE HAIL/TORNADO THREAT.

..GUYER.. 04/12/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 36219978 35709907 33679872 33269941 34160057 35670065
36219978

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