SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152329
TXZ000-160100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0555
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0629 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL AREAS AND ADJACENT
COASTAL PLAIN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 152329Z - 160100Z
THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE
THREAT.
LOCALLY ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERSECTION OF AN
INLAND ADVANCING SEA-BREEZE AND SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING WEAK COLD
FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN THE INITIATING MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED
INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF VICTORIA. THIS
IS BEING SUPPORTED BY FAIRLY LARGE CAPE OF 2000-3000+ J/KG...IN THE
PRESENCE OF HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 30-50 KT SOUTHERLY 500 MB FLOW IS
AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUBSTANTIVE MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT
ROTATION. AIDED BY A FOCUSED AREA OF ENHANCED LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST AT LEAST ANOTHER
SEVERAL HOURS. IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE WILL OCCUR...BUT THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL COULD
CONTINUE...ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...PERHAPS EVENTUALLY A LOCALIZED STRONG DOWNBURST...MAINLY
WEST/NORTHWEST OF CORPUS CHRISTI THROUGH 00-02Z.
..KERR.. 04/15/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CRP...
LAT...LON 28159774 28559756 28759725 28589692 28129706 27899744
27969772 28159774
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