MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0567

ACUS11 KWNS 192311
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192310
OKZ000-TXZ000-200115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0567
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0610 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL / CNTRL / SWRN OK AND WRN N-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 192310Z - 200115Z

THE AREA ACROSS N-CNTRL OK SSWWD INTO WRN N-CNTRL TX IS BEING
MONITORED FOR A SEVERE WW --ALBEIT DELAYED UNTIL THE CAP IS BREACHED
AND SCTD CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS UNDERWAY /00-03Z TIMEFRAME/.

LATEST SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A LOW SERVING AS A TRIPLE
POINT-LIKE FEATURE 30 MI WNW SPS. A DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD ACROSS THE
N-CNTRL TX TO THE TX BIG BEND VICINITY. A WINDSHIFT/WEAK COOL FRONT
EXTENDS NWD FROM THE LOW INTO S-CNTRL KS...WHILE A MORE APPRECIABLE
FRONTAL SEGMENT CONTINUES SWD ACROSS THE TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS/SOUTH
PLAINS REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SRN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION --HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE
WRN EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR-- AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES.
ADDITIONALLY...INCREASINGLY ACTIVE ACCAS FIELD ACROSS THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS AND SWRN OK IS BEGINNING TO SPILL OVER INTO THE WARM
SECTOR...MAKING CONVECTIVE INITIATION MORE PROBABLE AS THIS
CONVECTION DEEPENS WITHIN THE MORE MOIST AIRMASS AND CINH WEAKENS
FURTHER.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE AREA ATOP A
MODESTLY MOIST AIRMASS RESULTING IN 1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE. VEERING
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO 50 KTS AT 5KM AGL AT KFDR VAD WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS INITIALLY BEFORE A
CONGLOMERATION OF SCTD STORMS/COLD POOLS FAVORS A MIXED MODE BY LATE
EVENING. DESPITE SUPERCELL SUPPORTIVE WIND PROFILES ACROSS THIS
REGION...WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW PRIOR TO SUNSET AND SUBSTANTIAL CINH
--INCREASING TOWARDS DUSK AND THEREAFTER -- WILL LARGELY
LIMIT/NEGATE TORNADO POTENTIAL AS LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS ARE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS.

..SMITH.. 04/19/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 34109917 35889833 36509784 36559705 35969669 33239765
32879833 33069921 34109917

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