MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0568

ACUS11 KWNS 200029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200029
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-200230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0568
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS/WRN MO/NRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 200029Z - 200230Z

BAND OF CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NWRN MO
SWWD INTO NRN OK. WITH SEVERE THREAT LIKELY TO REMAIN LIMITED...WW
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW DEVELOPING CONVECTION
ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAT
EXTENDS FROM NWRN MO SWWD INTO SERN KS. EVENING RAOBS CONFIRM THE
OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST LITTLE IF ANY ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION ATOP A SLOWLY COOLING
BOUNDARY LAYER THIS EVENING. WHILE SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN SUPPORTIVE
OF ORGANIZED STORMS...LACK OF CAPE SHOULD MITIGATE THREAT FOR ANY
MORE THAN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS -- PARTICULARLY FROM E CENTRAL
KS NEWD INTO NWRN MO.

FARTHER TO THE SW...SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS WSWWD FROM
FAR SERN KS INTO NRN OK...WHERE SOMEWHAT MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
EXISTS -- WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED
TO N CENTRAL OK WHERE THE NRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER CAPE AXIS IS
OBSERVED. HOWEVER...WITH THIS AREA JUST N OF RECENTLY ISSUED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH #183...AN EXPANSION IN AREA OF THE EXISTING WATCH
WOULD BE THE PREFERRED COURSE OF ACTION FOR ANY INCREASING/FUTURE
THREAT IMMEDIATELY N OF THIS WATCH...AS SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO EXTEND FAR ENOUGH N TO WARRANT A SEPARATE WW.

..GOSS.. 04/20/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 38889417 38619366 36699474 36049631 36019811 36209867
36509835 37629614 38549513 38889417

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