MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0569

ACUS11 KWNS 200214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200213
OKZ000-TXZ000-200315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0569
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0913 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL-SRN OK / N-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 183...

VALID 200213Z - 200315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 183
CONTINUES.

SCTD BROKEN CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS --CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY
LARGE HAIL-- WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD INVOF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
IN CNTRL OK SWD TOWARDS THE NRN PART OF THE DFW METROPLEX DURING THE
NEXT 1-2 HRS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER OR NOT THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL LEAK EWD OUT OF THE EXISTING WW...AND AN AREAL EXTENSION OR NEW
WW MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED AS STORMS APPROACH THE ERN BOUNDS OF WW
183.

COMPOSITE SURFACE/RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL SEGMENT
ACCELERATING SEWD ACROSS WRN N-CNTRL TX TO THE STORM CLUSTER NEAR
YOUNG AND JACK COUNTIES /TX/. ANOTHER PORTION OF THE FRONT HAS
ADVANCED SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE WW NEAR THE OKC
METRO...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL LIFT AND AIDING IN THE FILLING-IN OF A
LINEAR CONGLOMERATION OF STORMS JUST NW OF I-44. IN BETWEEN THE 2
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARIES EXISTS A SLOW MOVING N-S ORIENTED
FRONTAL SEGMENT ACROSS SWRN OK--SERVING AS A GENESIS REGION FOR MORE
RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT.

00Z OUN RAOB SHOWED STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH PW/S NEAR 1
INCH--RESULTING IN MODERATE CAPE /1300 J PER KG/. STRONG FLOW AT H5
/50 KTS/ HAS ACTED TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE THIS
EVENING...AND HAS CONTRIBUTED TO LARGE HAIL GROWTH WITH THE MORE
ROBUST UPDRAFTS /RECENT HAIL REPORTS 1 TO 2.5 INCH IN DIAMETER/. AS
THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD...A MODEST FEED OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MAY ACT TO SUSTAIN A PORTION OF THESE
STORMS TO THE ERN BOUND OF WW 183--ESPECIALLY ACROSS OK WHERE THE
CAP WAS SHOWN TO BE WEAKER /PER OUN AND FWD RAOBS/. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CONCERNING POSSIBLE WW AREAL
EXTENSION OR THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM WW ACROSS E-CNTRL
OK.

..SMITH.. 04/20/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 32909889 34169782 35279826 35949656 35799570 35079530
34479561 33139676 32959717 32879831 32909889

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